Thursday, March 31, 2011

Govt allows free exports of cotton yarn

The government today removed restrictions on exports of cotton yarn.
As against the previous policy of exports under lincence, cotton yarn exports are now allowed after registering with the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), a government notification said.

In the backdrop of a sharp rise in cotton yarn prices hitting garment manufacturers, the government in last December had "restricted" its exports by putting the shipments under the licence category.

The government had also imposed a cap on yarn shipments at 720 million kilogram for 2010-11 to help ease rising domestic cotton prices.

Allowing free exports now, the DGFT notification said, "Clearance of cotton yarn consignments shall be given by Customs after verifying that the contracts have been registered."

Commenting on the move, the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) said that in the domestic market there was no demand for cotton yarn.


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Monster U.S. online jobs index rises in March (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? A monthly gauge of online job postings in the United States rose nearly 9 percent in March compared with the same month a year ago, as demand for healthcare workers rose, a private research group said on Thursday.

Monster Worldwide Inc, an online careers and recruiting firm, said its employment index was at the highest level since October 2010.

Compared with a year ago, the index was up 8.8 percent in March. It rose 5.4 percent, to 136 points, in March from 129 in February.

"The March index reinforces a consensus from other leading indicators that the labor market is continuing to grow at a measured pace," Jesse Harriott, senior vice president at Monster Worldwide, said in a statement.

The Monster index registered positive annual growth in 14 of 20 industries. Online postings rose in 17 of 23 occupations monitored in March.

Demand for workers in healthcare support led the occupations category, while the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector was the top industry.

The report comes ahead of weekly data on initial claims for jobless benefits, due on Thursday morning, and the larger monthly nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday.

The Monster Employment index is a monthly analysis based on a selection of corporate career sites and job boards. The margin of error is approximately plus or minus 1 percent.

(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Dan Grebler)


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House price rise checked by confidence at recession levels

The fall in consumer confidence was echoed by a monthly survey from GfK NOP, the polling company, on Thursday. The report said confidence in March stagnated, holding just above a two-year low, as households waited to see if they would benefit from tax measures in Britain's annual budget.

"Consumer confidence has stagnated at depths seldom seen outside of actual recession. The last time it was this consistently low was two years ago, and before then in autumn 1990," said Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research.

Official data released on Tuesday showed that last year British households suffered their first annual real-terms fall in disposable income since 1981.

Nationwide expects demand for houses to remain fairly soft and a rapid increase in the supply of properties also appears unlikely.

Mr Gardner said: "With the economic recovery expected to remain sluggish, the most likely outcome is that the property market will follow suit, with low transaction levels and prices moving sideways or modestly lower through 2011."

Nicholas Ayre, a director of UK buying agents Home Fusion, said of the Nationwide house price figures: "Never has a monthly price rise been less representative of the state of the property market.

"Given the state of demand, the recent trend of price rises the Nationwide has observed is likely to be short-lived ... the only thing that seems to be falling, and sharply, is consumer confidence."

A separate survey by Hometrack, the property research company, added to the gloom.

It said house prices in England and Wales fell at their fastest annual rate in 17 months in March and only strong demand in London prevented an even bigger decline.

Prices fell by 3.2pc in March compared to a year ago, according to Hometrack - the biggest fall since October 2009, when Britain was emerging from an 18-month recession.

On the month, prices fell by 0.1pc, the smallest drop since July, after a 0.2 percent dip in February.

However, Hometrack said London's relatively strong performance flattered the monthly figure, masking bigger falls in every region except southwest England where prices were unchanged.

Prices in Greater London rose by 0.2pc and climbed by 1pc in the centre of the capital, buoyed by strong demand and weak supply.

House prices are expected to continue to fall during 2011, dragged down by tight lending, government spending cuts and tax rises, high unemployment and low wage growth, Hometrack said.

Visit Telegraph Mortgage Services for free mortgage advice


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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Blustein: Craving Spinach After Nuclear Scare

March 30, 2011, 3:53 PM EDT

By Paul Blustein

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Almost every Saturday, my family goes to a yaoya, or market that sells produce grown to meet Japanese consumers? famously picky standards for tastiness, crispness and freshness. As much as we love the quality, we often wince at the prices. So my wife and I are looking forward to the day when we can enjoy a real bargain -- cheap spinach from Fukushima Prefecture.

Yes, Fukushima is where the March 11 tsunami devastated a complex of nuclear reactors, leading to partial meltdowns and the spewing of radioactive matter into the environment. And yes, spinach from a wide zone around the nuclear facilities was one of the first crops found unfit for sale -- an ominous harbinger for agriculture in one of Japan?s most bountiful areas.

Perhaps, then, my hankering for Fukushima spinach sounds like the bravado of a daredevil or nuclear-power advocate. I am neither of those things.

Rather, as a resident of the vast metropolitan area including Tokyo and Yokohama that lies within a couple of hundred miles of the crippled plants, I have been trying to educate myself about the health risks -- or lack thereof -- facing my family.

The more I learn, the more hysterical the reaction abroad seems regarding the alleged dangers to anyone living here or venturing near. Hence my perverse glee upon finding out that leafy green veggies from Fukushima could conceivably be back on the market in a few months -- perfectly safe, and presumably at low prices stemming from shoppers? chariness.

Steering Clear

Early manifestations of the hysteria -- an exodus from Japan of foreign bankers and other expats, soaring demand for iodine tablets on the U.S. West Coast -- were relatively harmless. More troubling are signs that the jitteriness could undermine Japan?s recovery as the nation?s tainted image leads to a halt or even a reversal in its integration with the global economy.

Last week, for example, Hapag-Lloyd AG, the world?s fourth- largest shipping firm, began keeping its vessels out of Tokyo Bay. Although few carriers followed suit, vessels coming from Japan face delays for extra inspections at foreign ports, a potentially costly burden that some experts say may lead to the diversion of more shipping away from Tokyo, disrupting the flow of goods in and out of the country.

The Japanese phrase gishin anki -- roughly, ?monsters in the darkness of doubtful minds? -- captures the fears that fuel such behavior. When it comes to radiation, most of us instinctively succumb to gishin anki syndrome -- as did I when news broke about the damage to the Fukushima plants. Envisioning lethal particles seeping into our house, I asked my wife, who is Japanese, where I could buy duct tape to seal our windows.

Soothing News

In days since, our anxiety eased as we watched the news on Japan?s public broadcasting network NHK. If anything can account for the relative calm among Japanese over the nuclear issue, NHK?s news programming may be the single most important factor.

Almost nightly, professors from leading universities have appeared on NHK to explain the degree of hazard that might be present in the air, soil and water. Their conclusions have been consistent: There is no cause for alarm among people living a substantial distance from the stricken plants.

The night that the Tokyo metropolitan government advised parents to stop giving tap water to infants, NHK anchors questioned Kenji Kamiya, president of Hiroshima University?s Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine and an authority on the hibakusha (survivors of the atomic bombs).

Assuring Moms

A kindly-looking man with thick white hair, Kamiya said that although he understood why mothers would worry, a baby who happened to drink some tap water should suffer no ill effects, given the low levels of radioactive material that had been found; he also assured mothers that they could safely continue breast-feeding. (The tap water advisory was rescinded after radiation levels diminished.)

Other nights, top academics in nuclear engineering have brought perspective to efforts to contain damage at the plant. They have assured the public that even the worst plausible outcome would be a far cry from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, for a number of reasons. Chief among them is the fact that the Fukushima reactors shut down immediately after the earthquake, rendering impossible the massive explosion that occurred at Chernobyl.

Might all this be part of a monstrous conspiracy to suppress panic? Even believers in such far-fetched theories would have a hard time explaining what I found on English language websites and news reports: experts drawing similar conclusions to the ones on NHK and a virtual absence of reputable authorities saying the opposite.

Fukushima Spinach

Spinach provides an illustrative example. Radioactive iodine -- the isotope responsible for causing thyroid cancer in thousands of children near Chernobyl -- turned up at levels well above legal limits in spinach samples from Fukushima.

Fortunately, the Japanese can take relatively simple preventive steps that the callous Soviet authorities didn?t -- i.e., keep the contaminated food off the market until the danger passes; the radioactivity in iodine almost completely degrades after a couple of months.

Although other isotopes spread around Fukushima may stay radioactive much longer, there are two reasons why that shouldn?t be too worrisome: First, scientific evidence indicates that those forms of radioactivity aren?t potent carcinogens. Second, deep plowing of the soil will hopefully get rid of that material as well.

Cancer Risk

?Hopefully,? of course, isn?t the same as ?definitely,? so meticulous monitoring is essential to ensure safety and restore public confidence. Still, some perspective is in order regarding damage caused by the leaks of radioactivity.

According to a calculation by Peter Caracappa, a health physicist at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, New York, you?d have to eat 820 pounds of spinach at the highest levels of contamination detected to increase your lifetime cancer risk by 4 percent. So while I wouldn?t relish eating a few chopsticks- full of Fukushima spinach right now, I wouldn?t shrink in terror either.

People from Tohoku, the region where the tsunami struck hardest, are renowned for being even more stoical, selfless and community-minded than the average Japanese. Yet, admiration and sympathy for these people doesn?t mean foreigners are obliged to risk their own health.

If I thought my kids were imperiled, I would join the evacuation from Tokyo. But the people of Tohoku, and their compatriots elsewhere in Japan, deserve a lot better than the gishin anki treatment. It will be a treat -- and privilege -- to eat their spinach.

(Paul Blustein, a former Tokyo correspondent for the Washington Post, is an author and researcher affiliated with the Brookings Institution and the Centre for International Governance Innovation. The opinions expressed are his own.)

--Editors: Charles W. Stevens, James Greiff

Click on ?Send Comment? in the sidebar display to send a letter to the editor.

To contact the writer of this column: Paul Blustein in Kamakura, Japan at pblustein@brookings.edu

To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net


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PTC Fin sinks on debut as high valuations keep away buyers

Shares of PTC India Financial Services sank 11.4% on debut to close at Rs 24.90 on the National Stock Exchange Wednesday as there was little follow up buying in the stock.

Brokerage Way2Wealth said at Rs 28 a share, the issue was priced at 1.25 times its fiscal year 2013 book value. "This is in line with the value that the peers are trading at currently i.e. Power Finance and REC; thus there is hardly any upside available for the investors," it had said in its research report.

The total IPO size of PTC India Financial Services was 15.67 crore shares, of which 12.75 crore was a fresh issue by the company, and the remaining 2.92 crore offered by Macquarie India Holdings, an investor in the company. The issue was subscribed 1.7 times.

PTC India Financial Services, which is the non-banking finance arm of power trader PTC India, raised Rs 357 crore through the fresh issue of shares, and the funds will be used to strengthen its capital base and to meet future capital requirements.

Analysts say PTC India Financial Services faces stiff competition from other large banks and NBFCs, which have proven track record in the segment and also good clientele.

It is also heavily dependent on parent PTC India for its business growth and the high cost of borrowings of over 10% is also a concern, analysts say.

Deven Choksey, managing director, KR Choksey Shares and Securities, however, said there could be gains for investors in the long-term since infrastructure projects have longer gestation period.

"If you look at the investment model which this company brings along with financing activity, that is an interesting proposition for investors to know because if you are investing in infrastructure projects and those infra projects over a longer period of time starts giving you the benefits on capital appreciation side, I think that would be a fantastic game," he told CNBC-TV18.

PTC India Financial Services joins a lost of several companies that tapped the stock market in 2010-11, and have seen their shares getting hammered.

Shares of Orient Green Power, for instance, lost 4.9% over its issue price of Rs 47 on debut in October, and are trading almost 49% lower at Rs 24.30 as of close on Wednesday.

Tarapur Transformers has lost almost 69% since listing and Goenka Diamond and Jewels is down nearly 58%.


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Could Oil Prices Be Headed for a Dip?

The reasons for oil's climb above $100 a barrel are well-known, including rising demand from fast-growing Asian economies, along with the risks of continuing geopolitical turmoil in North Africa and the Mideast. But as my colleague Charles Wallace recently reported, a significant premium in the price of oil stems from speculation, which has recently skyrocketed as traders and fund managers seek out commodity and global growth plays.

With oil swinging from around $50 per barrel in 2007 to $145 a barrel in 2008 and then plummeting to $32 a barrel in 2009, this huge increase in speculative trading has led to tremendous volatility.

And that leads to this question: could oil slump sharply, despite all the reasons typically given for higher prices, mostly as a function of the speculative trade?

Speculation Does Not Equal Endless Bull Markets

The recent explosion in oil speculation can be seen in the following two charts. The first depicts volume -- the total number of futures contracts traded -- and the second charts open interest, the number of contracts outstanding. This data is from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates the futures markets for commonly traded commodities.

The chart below, showing oil price history, illustrates how massive increases in speculation do not guarantee endless bull markets: highly leveraged speculative trades can quickly reverse course when sentiment changes. Rising volume and speculative interest increase volatility, as extremes of sentiment are reflected in large positions being taken on the long (bullish) or short (bearish) side.

Notice both volume and open interest rose sharply from 2006. Since then, oil rose in a bubble-like spike to $145 per barrel, and then subsequently crashed back to $32 per barrel a few scant months later as the global recession took hold. It has since tripled to over $100 barrel.

The next chart might give the oil bulls pause: the Commitment of Traders (COT) commercial traders' long and short positions in oil. Many investors and analysts look at COT for three basic categories of traders: small speculators, the large speculators -- such as hedge funds -- and commercial traders (typically global corporations that hedge against big swings in commodity prices), and large financial institutions' trading desks.

A short position by a large firm, in other words, might act as "portfolio insurance" or a hedge against volatility. Thus a firm that owned long contracts for oil might buy a short position to protect against losses should oil fall.

Note how the short interest of the commercial traders rose above long positions in the buildup to oil, peaking in 2008. As the price of oil marched ever higher, commercial traders sought out more protection in the form of short positions.

But higher short positions might also reflect trading bets that the high price won't last, and that a reversal is imminent.

Recently, long positions have declined while short positions have jumped. The spread between the two has widened to the largest gap in the past decade. Clearly, major players are betting (or hedging) that oil could drop precipitously.

Fearful of a Decline, or Betting on It

A recent report from Goldman Sachs concluded there is about $10 per barrel of speculative premium priced into oil. That suggests if the speculation declined, oil might fall at best $10 a barrel. From this point of view, oil is still priced mostly by fundamental supply-and-demand issues, and speculation adds no more that about 10% to the cost at today's price of $104 per barrel.

Given an expected rise in demand for oil -- especially as Japan replaces the electricity generation capacity it recently lost, as a result of the earthquake and tsunami that damaged the Fukushima nuclear reactors --Goldman Sachs estimates there is no more than $10 a barrel downside in the price of oil.

Perhaps, but estimating the consequences of increased speculation is not a precise science. Given the above chart, it seems evident that some of the biggest players aren't taking any chances. The unprecedented spread between long and short positions suggests somebody is either fearful of a major decline in the price of oil -- or is actively betting on it.


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Is Northrop Grumman's Stock Cheap by the Numbers?

Numbers can lie -- yet they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

  • The current price multiples.
  • The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
  • The amount of growth we can expect.

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) might be.

The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the price-to-earnings ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS). The lower the P/E, the better.

Then we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This tool divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). As with the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.

Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.

Northrop Grumman has a P/E ratio of 9.4 and an EV/FCF ratio of 13.7 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations with the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, we see that Northrop Grumman has a P/E ratio of 17.1 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 11.5.

A one-year ratio of less than 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, less than 20 is ideal.

Northrop Grumman has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it stacks up against some of its competitors and industry mates.�

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.

Numerically, we've seen how Northrop Grumman's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine ?

The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash-flow generation.

In the past five years, Northrop Grumman's net income margin has ranged from -3.9% to 6.0%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 4.4% to 7.2%.

How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.

In addition, over the past five years, Northrop Grumman has tallied up four years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.

Next, let's figure out ?

How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But even though you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared with similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.

Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Northrop Grumman has put up past EPS growth rates of 12.9%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 10.4%.

Here's how Northrop Grumman compares with its peers for trailing five-year growth:

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; EPS growth shown.

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; estimates for EPS growth.

The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples that shares of Northrop Grumman�are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.

The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 9.4 P/E ratio, and the numbers look impressive. For more on my thoughts, check out the defense stocks I bought in my real-money portfolio.

If you find Northrop Grumman's numbers or story compelling, don't stop here. Continue your due-diligence process until you're confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.

Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis. And for more stock ideas, check out this recent article: "34 Expert Analysts Uncover Outstanding Dividend Plays."


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Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Isa watch: four contenders for your savings

The fund has picked up recently, however, with a 1pc positive return in the past six months. Last August, it paid an interim dividend of 1.3p a share and earlier this month a second interim dividend of 0.2p per share.

The three largest holdings are Johnston Controls, a US energy efficiency company, American Superconductor, a renewable energy company, and Itron, an energy meter support company.

The current share price is 2.5p.

Thumb rating: down

Adrian Lowcock said: "Performance of this fund has been poor, having halved in value over the past 10 years. This is also an evolving sector and investors are likely to suffer periods of underperformance."

One alternative is Investec Enhanced Natural Resources.

Mr Lowcock continued: "Although this isn't a like for like replacement ? the fund can invest in metals and oil ? I prefer a broader commodities fund as it will be able to take advantage of all the opportunities available."

Bank of Cyprus cash Isa bonds

Bank of Cyprus UK has increased the rates across the range of its cash Isa bonds by up to 0.30pc. The bank now has a three-year, two-year and one-year fixed-rate Isa paying 4.1pc, 3.6pc and 3.3pc, market leading for three and one-year fixed-rate Isas.

Each Isa has a minimum deposit of just �1 and all three accept old Isa allowance transfers in. Savers can top up their Isas for the years 2011-12 and 2012-13 in �250 lump sums. No early withdrawals are permitted.

Apply by post, online at www.bankofcyprus.co.uk or by calling 0845 850 5555.

Thumb rating: up

Michelle Slade said: "This increase means that Bank of Cyprus has the highest paying one and three-year fixed-rate Isas and in the two-year market it sits just behind the market leader, Santander, who pay 3.7pc. For those looking to fix their rate these Isas deserve a thumbs-up."

Artemis strategic assets

This multi-asset fund run by respected manager William Littlewood is globally invested with a diverse portfolio. It is free to invest in shares, commodities, currencies and fixed interest, and top holdings include BP, gold, GlaxoSmithKline and a Nikkei 225 tracker.

The largest sector allocation is to cash markets, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and financials.

Launched in May 2009, the fund has returned 6pc over the past 12 months.

Thumb rating: up

Adrian Lowcock said: "William Littlewood is a very experienced and competent manager. He is given complete freedom to follow his views and has no restraints on where he can invest. The fund aims to provide investors with protection in falling markets while still participating in rising markets and as such should provide a solid return but with less risk."

Buckinghamshire Building Society Chiltern Golden Nuggets Isa

Most Isas either require you to pay in all the money upfront or allow you to make a restricted number of deposits. Buckinghamshire Building Society's Golden Nuggets Isa is specifically designed for those who wish to make monthly payments of the same amount, either by cash, cheque or standing order. There is a minimum monthly payment of �10 and a maximum of �425.

The interest rate is staggered ? savers with a balance of less than �500 will earn 3pc and those who have deposited more than �500 will earn 3.5pc on their savings. The higher rate is 0.25 percentage points more than the nearest competitor in the regular saving Isa market.

Download an application form at www.bucksbs.co.uk/investments or call 01494 879500 for more information.

Thumb rating: up

Michelle Slade said: "Not all Isa savers want to invest the full allowance in one go. Paying 0.25 percentage points above its nearest competitor in the regular saving Isa market, this is certainly one to consider."


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SP Tulsian positive on Tata Communications

SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com is positive on Tata Communications.

Tulsian told CNBC-TV18, "There is an interesting move, in fact this is a long overdue the hiving off of the 773 acres held by the company. If we all recall in 2002 when the company was divested to Tata Group at that time it was part of the agreement that 773 acres held by the company will be hived off to a separate company and all the shareholders prevalent of the company at that point of time will be given the benefit in that company. So even the public shareholders those who have tendered the shares in year 2002 pursuant to that open offer of 20% made by Tatas will also be entitled for the shares which will be either the sale proceeds or the company which will be created on hiving off the 773 acres but this is very unfortunate that the public shareholders those who have tendered their shares nine years back, havent heard anything. But if you now come on the point that it is likely to happen very soon because now it has all been there is lot of controversies on part of the present management, government and the regulators and all sort of things."

He further added, "The 773 acres land is located in Kolkata, Pune, Chennai and Delhi and if you see the land parcel held by the company in Delhi its about 128 acres of which 70 acres in Chattarpur and 58 acres in the Greater Kailash and that are the most valuable parcel of the land out of the 773. If you take the valuation of that that parcel alone held by the company in Delhi region in Chattarpur and Greater Kailash, it is learned that the valuation of that parcel alone is about Rs 5,000 crore and even if you take a valuation of about Rs 2,000-2,500 crore for remaining 600 acres or maybe 650 acres held at three other places gives a total valuations of about Rs 7,000-7,500 crore."

"If we recall in the past maybe four-five years back the Tatas have written a letter to the government that hiving off the process will attract a stamp duty of close to about Rs 500 crore and who will bear that burden of Rs 500 crore or implementing this whole process. So even if we take that as a benchmark four-five years back, Rs 500 crore stamp duty now translates into a valuation of about Rs 6,000-8,000 crore prevalent at that point of time and since then in fact we have seen a significant increase in the valuation of the real estates held at all the locations."

"I wont hesitate to give a valuation of about Rs 8,000-10,000 crore also to this land parcel but even if I presume it to be at Rs 6,000 crore and the present number of shares issued by the company at Rs 29 crore shares. So it gives a valuation of about Rs 200-220 per share and I think thats a very attractive sum of part held or embedded in this present share price and the public shareholders those who will be buying shares now from the open market will be entitled for benefit of this because whatever sale proceeds will come 51-52% will go to the government because 25% is held now by the government, 26 they have divested at that point of time, 20% will go to the old shareholders those who have tender their shares and 26% to 28% shares which are presently held by the public shareholder in the company will be given to them."

"Tatas wont be entitled for any benefit of this land hiving of benefit. So I think this is going to be a big trigger. Once you see the process getting initiated, once the roadmap or the blue print of the hiving off or the benefits or the sale plans getting crystallised, share can move to about Rs 350 because this has a huge value lying on account of that and even if you give a valuation of about Rs 150 for the core operations of the company share has all the potential to move up to 350 maybe in six months time. So for this reason I am holding positive view on the stock."


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Microsoft names exOracle India MD as India chairman

The world's top software firm Microsoft has named former managing director of Oracle's India operations, Bhaskar Pramanik, chairman of its India unit.

Microsoft said Pramanik will oversee sales, marketing and services operations of Microsoft India, which employs more than 5,300 staff across two development centers and 13 marketing offices.

Outside of the United States, Microsoft's largest employee base is in India.

Pramanik's appointment is the latest in a line of top-level changes at the Indian operations of global technology firms.

Pramanik, who announced his resignation from Oracle in March, replaces Ravi Venkatesan, who quit Microsoft India in February.

Venkatesan was the second top-rung official to quit Microsoft India in six months after former managing director Rajan Anandan, who was named head of Google's operations in January.


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'We will haunt MPs until they put this grave injustice right'

We are restructuring Emag to assist local groups who will be visiting their MPs to express their anger and to ensure that they do not think the 'Equitable problem? is dealt with. Our members will be relentless in pressing for the compensation they deserve. The Government has made a big mistake and we will haunt MPs until they put this grave injustice right.

We are also demanding that the Government urgently reconsider its decision to exclude an estimated 10,000 with-profits annuitants who had the misfortune to take their pension between 1987 and 1992. It is shameful that these pensioners have been excluded from receiving anything at all. By definition these people are likely to be even older and more frail than the post-1992 with-profits annuitants that the Government said were the most deserving of 100pc compensation.

The Government claims that they have made excessive gains and should not be compensated at all. But Emag has obtained the pension income figures for a number of these annuitants ? for policies started both before and after the cut-off date of September 1 1992.

This data shows a remarkable consistency between the losses of both groups. Typically their annual pensions continued paying out roughly the same amount until 2003 when they started to plummet thanks to falling bonus rates. By 2011 most of these annuitants have seen their pension income slashed by around 60pc. And it is still going down, every year.

Since compensation for other annuitants is designed to offset any gains against losses, we would argue that if what the Treasury claims about excessive gains is true then there would be no cost incurred by including the pre-1992 annuitants in the same scheme on the same basis. If they really have lost nothing, then no compensation would be due.

However, if, as Emag claims, they did lose, then the Government would have to find more money to put matters right.

Time is short ? the average age of these annuitants is 85 and many may not live to see any compensation unless the Government acts this year. We estimate the cost at about �150m, or �50m a year for the next three years. This contrasts with the �620m promised to the 37,000 people who took out a with-profits annuity after 1992.

A caring, compassionate government would ignore the technicalities and make ex-gratia payments available to these annuitants now, on the same basis of calculation as that applied to those whose policies started after 1992.

We call on the Government to honour the spirit of its election pledge to Equitable Life victims and to right this disgraceful wrong immediately.


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Monday, March 28, 2011

Tribune creditors propose revised bankruptcy plan (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Tribune Co bondholders led by hedge fund Aurelius Capital Management on Monday filed a revised bankruptcy reorganization plan for the media company, hoping to overcome objections by senior creditors.

The revised plan calls for lower sums to be set aside to address litigation stemming from Tribune's $8.2 billion leveraged buyout in 2007, which was led by real estate developer Sam Zell.

Some senior creditors had complained that too much of the equity in a reorganized Tribune would be tied up while the litigation, which could last for years, proceeds.

Tribune owns newspapers including the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times, and has other media properties including the WGN television superstation. It filed for Chapter 11 protection from creditors in December 2008.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Kevin Carey this month described Tribune's bankruptcy case as deadlocked, as the two creditor groups remained unable to agree on how to split the company's assets, according to the Chicago Tribune.

Tribune has backed a reorganization proposed by senior creditors led by JPMorgan Chase & Co, Oaktree Capital Management and Angelo, Gordon & Co. Bondholders including Aurelius oppose this plan.

The senior lenders had argued that putting too much of the company's value in a litigation trust would hold the company and many smaller creditors hostage to years of court battles, the Tribune said.

Under the bondholders' revised plan, about 20 percent to 29.5 percent of Tribune's value would be held in the litigation trust, down from 50 percent to 65.4 percent in their earlier plan.

The company backs the senior lenders' plan under which competing claims would be settled by the bankruptcy court, avoiding future litigation.

Senior lenders that financed the leveraged buyout would compensate bondholders and other unsecured creditors for some of their losses and control the company when it exits bankruptcy.

Carey had said on March 7 he might reject both proposals.

James Sottile, a Zuckerman Spaeder lawyer who has argued for the senior creditor group's plan, was not immediately available for comment.

The case is In re Tribune Co, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware, No 08-13141.

(Reporting by Dena Aubin; Additional reporting by Jonathan Stempel)


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SEC gets order freezing Petters settlement money (AP)

WASHINGTON ? Federal regulators have won a court order against a hedge fund manager they accuse of funneling hundreds of millions of dollars from investors in his funds to the $3.7 billion Ponzi scheme run by convicted Minnesota businessman Tom Petters.

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Monday the order by a federal judge in Minneapolis against Connecticut fund manager Marlon Quan. The order issued Friday by the judge freezes about $14 million that Quan was to get from a court-appointed receiver in the Petters case to settle claims against Petters by investors in Quan's funds, the agency said.

The SEC filed civil charges against Quan of violating the securities laws and aiding the Petters fraud. The agency says Quan negotiated an agreement with the receiver to "divert" the Petters settlement funds to himself and others instead of to the swindled investors.

The SEC also is seeking unspecified restitution and penalties against Quan, who lives in Greenwich, Conn.

An attorney representing Quan didn't have an immediate comment Monday.

Petters was convicted in 2009 on 20 counts of wire fraud, mail fraud, money laundering and conspiracy in one of the biggest Ponzi cases in recent years. He is serving a 50-year prison sentence but is appealing his conviction.

The SEC alleged that Quan collected more than $459 million from at least 165 investors in his hedge funds and funneled the majority of it, an amount it didn't specify, to Petters from 2001 through September 2008. Quan made about $90 million in fees from investors in his funds whose money was transferred to Petters, the agency said. When Petters couldn't make payments on the investments, Quan hid Petters' defaults from the investors by fabricating transactions, according to the SEC.


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Davidowitz: This Is What?s Wrong With Wal-Mart

Wal-Mart is just too darn big!

You've heard that line before from Wal-Mart opponents who say the superstores threaten the livelihoods of local mom and pop shops around the country, which can't compete with the megachain's rock-bottom prices.

There is no dispute that Wal-Mart is the world's largest retailer. The company operates 4,300 U.S. stores and more than 4,000 stores globally in 15 different markets. Last year alone the company posted $405 billion in sales.

Retail expert and The Daily Ticker regular, Howard Davidowitz of Davidowitz & Associates, calls Wal-Mart a "retail miracle" and one of the greatest American success stories. However, he agrees that the company has gotten too large. What's key is that his reasoning is a bit different: The company has grown too big for its own financial good.

"Wal-Mart's increase in sales in an average year is more than the whole ... Macy's [sales figure]," he tells Henry with amazement in this interview. "[But] they're down [comparable] store-sales seven straight quarters, and the stock has done nothing for a decade."

So, what's wrong with Wal-Mart?

The company has made a number of huge financial mistakes because it has lost touch with its customers, Davidowitz says. The company is trying to be something that it's not by remodeling stores, upgrading apparel, reducing assortments, as well as allowing other low-cost retailers to offer better prices.

Its customers aren't looking for luxury. Most just need to the basics, even on the apparel side, he says.

The fundamental reason Wal-Mart and its shoppers have grown apart is largely due to the centralization of management in Bentonville, Ark., where the company is based. "There is a fundamental problem about centralization when you get to a certain size," says Davidowitz. "What they've got to do is look to decentralize the business."

But there is hope. If Wal-Mart can regionalize the management of its stores and reconnect with its customers, Davidowitz strongly believes the company can boost U.S. sales again and give new life to its stock price.


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Hot sectors, jobs on investors' radar (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? U.S. stock investors could scramble to pick up some of the market's recent best performers this week as the quarter comes to an end, putting the spotlight on energy and industrial companies.

But worries about Japan, the Middle East and oil prices will persist and keep uncertainty high, analysts said, even as the VIX, the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX), slid 27 percent over the past week.

Another driver could come from economic data, with the U.S. government's March payrolls report -- the most widely watched economic indicator of the month -- due on Friday.

Economic data lately has taken a backseat to geopolitical events, with Japan's massive earthquake and tsunami sparking fears of a nuclear disaster in the country and driving the most recent pullback in stocks.

But many expect window dressing, where fund managers sell stocks with big losses and buy ones with big gains to spruce up their portfolio's quarterly performance, to dominate trading.

"I think a number of people viewed the harshness of the sell-off as an opportunity to pick up some inappropriately punished stocks," said Michael Strauss, chief economist of Wilton, Connecticut-based Commonfund.

The strategy contributed to a bounceback late last week, with the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) posting their best weeks since July. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 (.SPX) had its best week since early February.

Analysts say the stock market's recent performance has been strongly influenced by expectations for the upcoming earnings reporting period, which kicks off the second week of April.

Oracle's upbeat outlook late Thursday and its stock's 1.6 percent rise on Friday is one example of that, while the energy sector has benefited from the view that the run-up in oil prices will mean stronger-than-anticipated results for producers and refiners.

KING OIL

Energy, up about 14 percent since the start of the quarter as measured by the S&P energy index (.GSPE), is by far the sector with the biggest gains for the quarter to date.

Brent crude oil prices are trading at $115 a barrel, just off recent 2 1/2-year highs, as Western powers last weekend launched a military campaign in oil producer Libya and unrest escalated in other countries, including Yemen and Bahrain.

While higher oil prices are seen as an overall drag on the global economy, they boost the earnings and shares of energy companies.

"If they're able to sell oil at anywhere near the spot prices, they should post a really good quarter, and we're already seeing that in the stock prices," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist of D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Marathon Oil (MRO.N), up about 40 percent for the quarter to date, has the fourth-best gain in the S&P 500 for the last three months, and energy companies dominate the quarter's top performers. El Paso Corp (EP.N) is up 31 percent and Valero Energy (VLO.N) is up 30 percent.

Among the stocks in the Dow Jones industrial average, Chevron Corp (CVX.N), up 17 percent for the quarter, is the Dow's top gainer so far for the quarter.

Gary Bradshaw, portfolio manager at Dallas-based Hodges Capital Management, which he described as "heavy in energy," said the firm likes Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), Chevron and ConocoPhillips (COP.N). But he said Hodges also likes small-capitalization energy companies, including Brigham Exploration (BEXP.O), up 30 percent so far for the quarter.

INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH

Among top sectors, energy is followed by industrials (.GSPI), up about 6 percent so far for the quarter; consumer discretionaries (.GSPD), up 4 percent, and technology (.GSPT), up 3 percent.

Caterpillar (CAT.N), up 16.5 percent for the quarter, has the second-best gain among the Dow's 30 stocks.

Strauss predicts investors will turn even more to industrial and agricultural companies, seen likely to benefit from the economic recovery in the United States and growth elsewhere.

"The manufacturing component of the industrial sector has had a very nice economic cycle upturn, and it's happened at a time when we haven't been able to rebuild depleted inventory positions," Strauss said.

That should help U.S. companies overcome the shock of what's happening overseas, including debt problems in Portugal, he said. According to a Reuters poll released last week, the S&P 500 should end the year with a gain of 11 percent.

Friday's payrolls report for March should show improvement in the slow-to-recover labor market. Last month, the government's monthly jobs report showed the jobless rate slipped to almost a two-year low in February.

Investors are going to become more "stock-specific" going forward, even within better-performing areas like the cyclical sectors, said Scott Billeaudeau, portfolio manager of Fifth Third Asset Management in Minneapolis.

"There are certain areas that still have significant leverage and they haven't overspent," he said, noting he owns Cummins Inc (CMI.N), down about 5 percent for the quarter. "I think there are lots of legs in a company like that."

Earnings for the S&P 500 as a group are expected to rise 14 percent for the quarter from the year before, according to Thomson Reuters data.

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Sunday, March 27, 2011

Fed Should Consider Curtailing Stimulus Program, Bullard Says

March 28, 2011, 12:04 AM EDT

By Scott Hamilton

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said policy makers should review whether to curtail a plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury securities, noting that the U.S. recovery may not need that much stimulus.

?The economy is looking pretty good,? Bullard said to reporters in Marseille, France, on March 26. ?It is still reasonable to review QE2 in the coming meetings, especially this April meeting, and see if we want to decide to finish the program or to stop a little bit short,? he said, referring to the second round of so-called quantitative easing.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has given no indication the central bank will deviate from its plan to buy bonds through June to spur economic growth and reduce 8.9 percent unemployment. Bullard, who in July became the first policy maker to call for Fed purchases of Treasuries, has said the Federal Open Market Committee should review the plan at every meeting and, if necessary, continue it indefinitely.

Bernanke said in two days of congressional testimony this month that while growth will accelerate this year, he still wants to see a ?sustained period of stronger job creation.? He has avoided indicating what the Fed?s next step will be after finishing the $600 billion of purchases.

?While indicators of spending and production have been encouraging on balance, the job market has improved only slowly,? Bernanke, 57, a former Princeton University economist, said March 1 and March 2 in semiannual hearings on monetary policy.

Close to Zero

Policy makers at their March 15 meeting indicated they see an improving economy that lacks enough strength to warrant removing record monetary stimulus. They left the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it?s been since December 2008. They also retained a pledge in place since March 2009 to keep the rate ?exceptionally low? for an ?extended period.?

While the economy is stronger than last summer and fall and quantitative easing should be reviewed, uncertainties remain, including Japan, political tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. fiscal position and the European sovereign debt crisis, Bullard said. U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product may not be as strong as anticipated several weeks ago, and some strengthening may get pushed into the second quarter, he said.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, led by a jump in consumer spending that will be hard to match early in the year as energy prices surge. Rising oil prices sparked by turmoil in the Middle East may erode consumers? purchasing power, and supply constraints caused by the Japan earthquake and its aftermath slow the pace of recovery this quarter.

?Not Enough?

The oil price increases so far are ?not enough to derail the U.S. recovery at this level,? Bullard said. ?If oil prices stabilize where they are, we?ll be fine.? Prices would have to go substantially higher for there to be a ?significant and material effect,? he said.

?We have to weigh those in the decision? on whether to stop the Fed?s QE2 program earlier than planned, Bullard said.

U.S. central bankers have said they will keep interest rates near zero for an extended period. In contrast, European Central Bank officials indicated this month that uncertainty caused by Japan?s earthquake may not deter them from raising interest rates next month.

?We?re far away from normal policy,? Bullard said. ?I think it?s important to take a few steps back to normality. Even if you make a few small moves, monetary policy will still be accommodative for some time to come.?

?Still Suffer?

While the economy may still suffer shocks, the ?balance sheet should be contingent? and the Fed should be ready if the economy turns down, he said.

?If the economy is as strong as I think it is then I think it may be reasonable to send a signal to markets that we?re going to start withdrawing our stimulus, and I?d start by pulling up a little bit short on the QE2 program,? Bullard said. ?We can?t be as accommodative as we are today for too long, we?ll create a lot of inflation if we do that.?

If the Fed opts to start withdrawing stimulus and tighten policy, it should start with the ?balance sheet? by selling bonds first, then changing its wording about keeping interest rates near zero for an ?extended period? and then raising interest rates, Bullard said.

Bullard has warned since last July about a risk of Japanese-style deflation in the U.S. while calling for purchases of Treasury securities to reduce the threat. Bullard, 50, voted in favor of the Treasury purchase program in November and has rotated this year into an annual non-voting position.

Stronger Economy

Bullard said last month the U.S. central bank may need to reduce the amount of purchases in light of stronger U.S. economic data. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker have also urged a review of the purchases in light of a strengthening economy and concern over future inflation.

?It looks like inflation is bottoming out and if we continue that, I think we will have gone past? the worst, he said. ?We seem to be turning the corner there, but I would want to see more data on that.?

--With assistance from James Kraus in London and Steve Matthews in Atlanta. Editors: James Tyson, Kevin Costelloe

To contact the reporter on this story: Scott Hamilton in London at shamilton8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net


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Oracle drives Wall Street higher; volume stays weak (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Wall Street advanced for a third straight day on Friday, giving the S&P its best weekly performance since early February, but volume remained light as global uncertainty persisted.

The three major stock indexes posted weekly gains after two straight weeks of declines brought on by the Japan earthquake, turmoil in the Arab world and a resurfacing of European debt problems.

Helped by a rise in tech shares after an upbeat outlook from Oracle Corp(ORCL.O), the S&P notched its best week since early December. But low volume, and the market's uncanny ability to withstand bad news, spurred questions about the rally's strength.

"Overall, I keep looking at the pluses and minuses and this week has been spectacular with respect to everybody ignoring the minuses," said Kim Caughey Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) posted its second-worst seven-day run as investors shed anxieties about the global tumult.

Friday's trading volume of 6.56 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, was weak, with Friday's session the second-lowest of the year, pointing to a lack of conviction. Daily average volume is 8.04 billion.

Oracle's stock climbed 1.6 percent to $32.64 and was the Nasdaq's most actively traded name a day after forecasting a rise in new software sales for its current fiscal quarter. The outlook fueled hopes that a global resurgence in tech spending remains intact, prompting at least 12 brokerages to raise their price targets on the stock.

The S&P technology index (.GSPT) rose edged up 0.2 percent on Friday, and is up 3.3 percent so far this quarter.

In a further boost to techs, Accenture (ACN.N) rose 4.5 percent to $54.29 after the technology outsourcing and consulting company raised its outlook.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 50.03 points, or 0.41 percent, to 12,220.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) rose 4.14 points, or 0.32 percent, to 1,313.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) added 6.64 points, or 0.24 percent, to 2,743.06.

For the week, the Dow gained 3.1 percent, the S&P climbed 2.7 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 3.8 percent.

On the downside in tech shares, BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd (RIM.TO)(RIMM.O) said earnings would slip as it spends heavily to launch its PlayBook tablet. The company's U.S.-listed shares sank 11.2 percent to $56.89.

On the economic data front, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew more quickly than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2010 as businesses restocked shelves to meet rising demand.

U.S. consumer sentiment in March fell to its lowest level in more than a year as gasoline and food prices rose, according to the latest consumer survey from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,969 to 1,015, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,515 to 1,092.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Ireland wants bank bondholders to share the pain (Reuters)

DUBLIN (Reuters) ? Ireland's government wants to impose losses on some senior bondholders in Irish lenders to reduce the burden on taxpayers from a prolonged banking crisis, a senior minister said on Sunday.

Dublin wants to impose losses on banks' senior unsecured bonds not covered by a state guarantee, which currently amount to over 16 billion euros, as part of a new deal with the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"A sustainable and comprehensive solution for Irish banking that involves recapitalization but also involves an element of burden-sharing ... That is certainly the outcome that the government is looking for," Simon Coveney, minister for agriculture, told state broadcaster RTE.

Under an EU-IMF bailout agreed late last year Ireland can impose losses on banks' junior debt, but the ECB is opposed to treating senior bondholders, which are ranked on a par with depositors, in the same fashion for fear of a contagion risk.

Ireland's new government, elected in February, has said the state cannot afford the current EU-IMF bailout deal and European finance ministers will decide on what sort of concessions they can offer Dublin in coming weeks.

They are awaiting the results of fresh stress tests on Ireland's banks, expected to show a capital hole of around 25 billion euros, on March 31 before deciding on any new deal.

Coveney said investors are already pricing in the possibility of a restructuring of senior bank debt given that it is trading at a discount in the secondary market.

"Markets are already ahead of us on this one. There is an acceptance that there is a possibility if not a likelihood that bondholders in Irish banks may have to share some of the pain," he said.

Analysts widely expect the government to impose losses on senior bondholders in nationalized lenders Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide because they have sold their deposits and are being wound down.

Hitting any unsecured unguaranteed senior bonds in Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Banks (AIB), which amount to over 11 billion euros, would be more controversial.

Rumours that AIB was planning to miss a coupon payment on a bond, denied by the bank, helped send the yield on two-year Irish sovereign paper soaring to euro-era highs as investors feared a sovereign restructuring was in the works.

(Editing by David Holmes)


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Oracle drives Wall Street higher; volume stays weak (Reuters)

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? Wall Street advanced for a third straight day on Friday, giving the S&P its best weekly performance since early February, but volume remained light as global uncertainty persisted.

The three major stock indexes posted weekly gains after two straight weeks of declines brought on by the Japan earthquake, turmoil in the Arab world and a resurfacing of European debt problems.

Helped by a rise in tech shares after an upbeat outlook from Oracle Corp(ORCL.O), the S&P notched its best week since early December. But low volume, and the market's uncanny ability to withstand bad news, spurred questions about the rally's strength.

"Overall, I keep looking at the pluses and minuses and this week has been spectacular with respect to everybody ignoring the minuses," said Kim Caughey Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

The CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) posted its second-worst seven-day run as investors shed anxieties about the global tumult.

Friday's trading volume of 6.56 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, was weak, with Friday's session the second-lowest of the year, pointing to a lack of conviction. Daily average volume is 8.04 billion.

Oracle's stock climbed 1.6 percent to $32.64 and was the Nasdaq's most actively traded name a day after forecasting a rise in new software sales for its current fiscal quarter. The outlook fueled hopes that a global resurgence in tech spending remains intact, prompting at least 12 brokerages to raise their price targets on the stock.

The S&P technology index (.GSPT) rose edged up 0.2 percent on Friday, and is up 3.3 percent so far this quarter.

In a further boost to techs, Accenture (ACN.N) rose 4.5 percent to $54.29 after the technology outsourcing and consulting company raised its outlook.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) gained 50.03 points, or 0.41 percent, to 12,220.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) rose 4.14 points, or 0.32 percent, to 1,313.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) added 6.64 points, or 0.24 percent, to 2,743.06.

For the week, the Dow gained 3.1 percent, the S&P climbed 2.7 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 3.8 percent.

On the downside in tech shares, BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd (RIM.TO)(RIMM.O) said earnings would slip as it spends heavily to launch its PlayBook tablet. The company's U.S.-listed shares sank 11.2 percent to $56.89.

On the economic data front, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew more quickly than previously estimated in the fourth quarter of 2010 as businesses restocked shelves to meet rising demand.

U.S. consumer sentiment in March fell to its lowest level in more than a year as gasoline and food prices rose, according to the latest consumer survey from Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan.

Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by 1,969 to 1,015, while on the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners 1,515 to 1,092.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Saturday, March 26, 2011

How Age Determines Your Investing Decisions

By Joe Mont, TheStreet.com

When it comes to financial decisions and investing strategies, who does a better job: young, tech-savvy investors or their conservative, old-school elders?

Bad news for the adults: Research by Stanford University and Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management found evidence that older investors may be more prone to make bold moves and bad choices.

In technical terms, "a variability in nucleus accumbens activity" may be to blame for irrational financial decisions made by some older investors. Put more simply: daydreaming.

The researchers found evidence that older investors are more prone to distractions and wandering thoughts that result in taking unnecessary risks and choosing stocks that they should otherwise have known to back away from. Poor decision-making isn't necessarily the result of senility, memory lapses or other cognitive declines that go hand in hand with aging.

As part of their study, men and women between the ages of 19 and 85, while having their brains scanned by an MRI, were put through a game that involved choosing among various stocks and bonds. Older subjects proved just as willing as younger ones to choose riskier investments, stocks over bonds. But the older participants more frequently made rash decisions, choosing stocks before they even considered performance and earnings data available to them. In some cases, they were well aware of companies' earnings, gains and losses, but chose weaker offerings nonetheless.

It wasn't forgetfulness that led to bad choices, but what the researchers referred to as "noise" -- other thoughts "leaking" into the task at hand.

In terms of brain chemistry, the release of the neurotransmitter dopamine -- traditionally thought to decline with age -- spiked during the experiment and could be partly to blame for the randomness of the choices made.

"We don't know a whole lot about how aging affects decision-making, particularly in the financial realm," says Brian Knutson, associate professor of psychology and neuroscience at Stanford University. "This is becoming increasingly important because the global population is aging, and so the financial decisions people make as they age are going to become an increasingly important aspect of the economy."

Beyond dopamine flashes and senior moments, there are differences in perspective between older and younger investors that can influence their moves, for better or worse.

Steve Johnson, a Boston area financial consultant for Charles Schwab (SCHW), says recent surveys have shown that younger investors are feeling less confident in their financial decisions.

Even if older investors are more confident about their moves, "it doesn't mean those are really the best decisions," he says.

Older investors often "anchor themselves into things that have happened in the past," Johnson says. The fear of rising inflation is one such example, as they flash back to the double-digit increases of the 1970s and "have convinced themselves that we have to see it again."

"Older investors are more reluctant to buy into fixed income," Johnson says. "After several years of seeing the market go down, we saw a lot of money poured into fixed income; now we see that income coming out as people start to be fearful of inflation. And yet, for those who are retired and looking for income, perhaps the best decision for them is to be looking at that allocation."

Older investors, he says, also tend to be creatures of habit when it comes to the stocks they choose, returning to stocks they and their parents were most familiar with over the years -- such companies as Exxon (XOM) and General Electric (GE).

"People tend to not look at [familiar companies] objectively and often own those stocks despite what the fundamentals may say," he says.

"Some of the older people, if they are more conservative, are going to look for dividend-paying stocks or dividend-paying mutual funds," says Rosanne Rog�, managing director of R.W. Rog� & Co., a New York-based wealth management firm. "The younger people are going to be a little more aware of other things they can invest in, like ETFs or emerging-market funds, something that will give them a little more bang for the buck. They have so many more choices than the older folks did. Back then, it was basically all about blue chip stocks."

Conventional wisdom is that younger investors are brash risk-takers and older folks are more cautious and methodical. Numerous post-recession studies, however, are finding that the opposite is true in many cases, with Generation Y and the even younger "millennials" proving to be skittish and risk averse when it comes to playing the market.

Johnson sees their approach as understandable. These are age groups that, thus far in their short lives, have witnessed the tragedy of 9/11 and lived through a recession, bursting sector bubbles, the collapse of the housing market and bailouts of "too big to fail" financial institutions.

"People have the sense that the market is against them," Johnson says.

An upside may be that the younger set may be more serious about paying off debt, increasing their savings and planning for the future.

"One of the positives coming out of the financial crisis is that we are starting to see a more responsible generation, one that says, 'debt was a bad issue for my parents ... and I don't want that to be me.' After seeing the damage that was wrought over the past couple of years, and how it impacted their parents, the younger generation says they can't afford to have that much volatility and that much movement within their portfolio and savings. They think, 'If I can invest this conservatively, and save more frequently, that's a much better plan than going at it with an aggressive portfolio and hoping that over time it does well."

Rog� says perspectives are shaped depending "on when they first got into the market."

"Those in their 30s and 40s are OK with taking on a little more risk," she says. "The ones in their 20s were just started to get involved in the market when they saw their 401(k) values go down. They are the ones who tend to be a little more conservative, because they've been burned -- and burned badly. The 30- and 40-year-olds, they've been there and done that. They know it comes back at some point, so they are willing to take on more risk. Not a lot, but a little bit more."

Younger investors are often better educated and more savvy about financial decisions than their elders were at their age, Rog� says. That is partly due to the volume of news and guidance available to them. It also springs from the reality that they, unlike the pension-collecting generations before them, have to take control of their own retirement plan.

"When your dad or my dad left the company, they received a gold watch and they got a fixed pension," she says. "They didn't need to have any other education. They knew what was coming in and provided for them, so any other money they had was usually in a savings account. They weren't much into the market back in those days. These kids today are really going to have to really rely on it. They have no choice."


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New Options for Underwater Homeowners

Until recently, it took a rare combination of extreme bad luck and poor judgment for a homeowner to end up under water on his mortgage ? that is, owing more than the house is worth. Today, nearly one out of four homeowners is facing exactly that situation. In response, banks and the government are rolling out new programs they say will help ? that is, for homeowners who qualify.

After banks' initial resistance to loan modification programs and refinancing designed to help struggling borrowers, many are now embracing programs for homeowners in trouble. Both GMAC Mortgage and Wells Fargo have started either reducing some mortgage balances, deferring payments or offering subsidized refinancing. Chase says it will open another 30 dedicated "help centers" this year where homeowners can apply for loan modifications. This month, the government also stepped in, extending the period for underwater borrowers to refinance their mortgages at lower rates, which was not possible through standard refinance programs. "All of a sudden, everyone is aware of this growing problem," says Stu Feldstein, president at SMR Research, which tracks the mortgage market.

About a year ago, it seemed the number of underwater homeowners was declining as home prices were rising. But housing analysts say that trend is now reversing. Approximately 23% of homeowners with a mortgage are underwater -- near an all-time high -- according to fourth quarter 2010 data from CoreLogic, a mortgage-data firm. That figure rose for the first time in a year, and it's up from 22.5% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, another 2.4 million homeowners are teetering on the brink, with less than 5% equity in their home. If home prices drop another 10% -- which is likely over the next year ? many of those owners could end up with negative equity, says Cameron Findlay, chief economist at LendingTree.com.



While this has been an obvious problem since 2008, "large banks have been extraordinarily slow to move to adopt these programs," says Paul Leonard, a director at the Center for Responsible Lending. But now lenders are increasingly stepping in, eager to avoid foreclosures, which can cost the bank far more than a reduced payment plan or loan modification ever would. Lenders are also hoping to keep discouraged homeowners from intentionally walking away from their home: Half of homeowners who owe 50% or more on their home than it's worth and who default do so strictly because of negative equity, according to a 2010 Federal Reserve Board study.

But the banks' programs aren't designed simply for people disappointed by falling prices. To qualify, in most cases, borrowers have to prove they're having trouble making their payments and for a good reason. They'll often have to provide documentation for a job loss, a pay cut, large medical expenses or other unanticipated losses. If approved, they could be offered a lower interest rate ? by up to 2% when a bank is participating in the government's Home Affordable Modification Program. Or they may also receive a longer repayment period ? extending a mortgage by up to 40 years from the date of origination -- which makes monthly payments smaller, says Leonard.

With some lenders, borrowers who are past due and whose home values have suffered large losses (and appear unlikely to recover in the near term) could qualify for a principal deferment, where a chunk of the mortgage is set aside to be paid later, or out-and-out forgiveness of part of the loan. In general, borrowers will have to meet some income limitations. Modifications typically occur when a borrower's monthly mortgage payment is more than 31% of their monthly household pre-tax income and when the principal balance is no more than $729,750 on a single-family home. The amount forgiven is often small in the grand scheme of things, and it varies depending on the lender and the borrower's circumstances. Wells Fargo, for example, says it eliminated $51,000 in principal, on average, for more than 73,000 borrowers from 2009 through 2010.

Some government programs offer help, through refinancing, to underwater borrowers who are capable of making payments. But applicants will need to meet a long list of qualifications. For underwater borrowers, these programs are among the very few options available for them to refinance. Homeowners who owe up 125% of their home's current market value should contact their lender or mortgage servicer to find out if they're participating in the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), which was just extended through June 2012. Borrowers must have a mortgage that's guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac -- to find out, contact these agencies or your mortgage company -- be current on their payments, and not be more than a month late making a payment over the past year.

There's also an option for borrowers who are even further underwater where participating lenders must agree to write off at least 10% of their unpaid principal balance on their primary mortgage. Since September, the government's Federal Housing Administration has been offering some underwater borrowers in areas with large declines in home values -- like Miami and Las Vegas -- a chance to refinance. But that's assuming that their lender agrees to write off a portion of the unpaid principal and that the borrower doesn't have an FHA mortgage but can now qualify for one. So far, just 24 lenders are participating, and only 99 loans have been approved, according to an FHA spokesman. A GMAC spokeswoman says the company will open up this program to some of its borrowers in the next few weeks.

In spite of the recent flurry of activity, consumer advocates say homeowners shouldn't expect much ? at least not yet. As it is, some government programs have already fallen short of expectations. HAMP, for example, has helped around 600,000 people permanently modify their mortgages since 2009 -- so far, a far cry from the up to four million it was projected to help. And banks have been slow to act as well, especially when it comes to borrowers who are currently making payments. Among lenders "there is some concern that by offering [principal reduction] qualified borrowers will storm the gate and demand a reduction," Leonard says. So far, that hasn't been the case. From 2009 through 2010, Chase says it helped around 500,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. During that period, about two million foreclosures occurred, according to RealtyTrac.com. And critics say even the loan modifications that have been in place haven't helped that much: Many of those borrowers fell behind on payments again afterwards.

Of course, there are other options for desperate homeowners. They can try a short sale, assuming the bank allows them to sell the home for less than what's owed on the mortgage. More lenders are now open to this, says Stuart Gabriel, director at UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate, because they're likely to lose less money in a short sale than they would in a foreclosure. Or, if they can make the payments, they can decide to ride it out. Contrary to popular belief, homeowners who have seen their homes lose 25% or more in value but can afford to keep paying the mortgage might be better off staying there and waiting for prices to stabilize, says Findlay. But if a borrower is able to refinance into a lower rate through a government program, that might be the better move, he says.


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