Friday, February 18, 2011

Events over weekend to decide market trajectory for Monday

The close wasn?t good for the Nifty today as it just about managed to close above the 5450 level. But it looked very vulnerable and shaky in the last half an hour to 45 minutes. In fact stocks were falling in a very sharp fashion the moment the Nifty broke the 5500 level and started trading below that.

ADAG triggered it off. It was down since morning but the fall accelerated suddenly at about 2:30 in the afternoon and many of those stocks were down 7-9%. That triggered off the collapse in the market and then the vulnerable sectors like infrastructure led by names like JP Associates, Punj Lloyd, IVRCL. Then real estate, the index was down 2.5%, many largecap names too I should mention, names like ONGC, Bharti, L&T, M&M, Tata Motors, they were the ones which also dragged the market down.

The Nifty would have done worse had it not been HUL which stood out in a falling market as a classic defensive and sort of shielded the index a little bit. But otherwise it was not a good close at all.

The breadth was quite terrible and the volumes were high at Rs 2.1 lakh crore today. So it?s a high volume poor breadth sell off suddenly after the Nifty approached 5600. It?s too premature to say it?s the end of the pull back rally but certainly would have caused a lot of doubts on its continuation next week.

We had one advancing share to five declining stocks today and only a handful of names like STC, ITI, IRB Infra, Bank of Maharashtra held out on the winning side. The losing side is very long. Unitech got hammered again, Anant Raj Industries which is in the eye of a controversy on 2G now was 20% down, Suzlon was down, Renuka, and Jain irrigation were also down, and TVS Motors was down sharply. Delta Corp, Petronet LNG, Orchid Chemicals, long list of losing midcaps and not just 1% and 2% cuts but deep gashes of 5-8% in many of those liquid names.

It?s not been a good closing for the week. However, the weekend could be important because you could get some developments on the political front. Answers to whether the budget session will happen, also on the Chinese situation because China raised rates after the markets closed today. So all of that goes into the melting pot as we start trade on Monday.


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