Friday, February 25, 2011

U.S., Saudi reassure on growth as Libya turmoil drives oil (Reuters)

WASHINGTON/RIYADH (Reuters) ? The world can weather a spike in oil prices, U.S. President Barack Obama said, as Saudi Arabia offered some respite to fears over Middle East oil supplies by indicating it can cover export cuts resulting from Libya's civil war.

After a surge in Brent oil prices to 2- year highs near $120 a barrel, South Korea, the world's fifth-biggest crude importer, warned that its inflation situation was getting tougher.

Business executives fretted about rising prices and investment banks said oil was reaching an inflection point that could endanger the world's recovery from the global financial crisis.

"We actually think that we'll be able to ride out the Libya situation and it will stabilize," Obama, referring to fuel prices, told a group of corporate chief executives.

His Treasury Secretary said the world had plenty of oil reserves.

"We have substantial capacity across the major economies in the strategic reserves," Timothy Geithner said.

"Hopefully, by reminding people of that and calling attention to the fact that there's a fair amount of excess capacity in parts of OPEC ... hopefully that will make it less likely the market ... starts to build in higher prices over time."

The key risk for the world economy is a sustained rise in the price of oil. But after shooting up to close to $120 a barrel in intraday trade on Thursday, Brent crude futures ended the day at less than $112, showing just how fraught investors nerves are.

The sharp fall came after market rumors that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had been shot dead and on news that top producer Saudi Arabia could cover any supply disruptions.

On Friday, Brent crude was trading around $112. U.S. crude futures eased to $97.60 from a Thursday high of $103.41.

In Libya, forces loyal to Gaddafi hit back in fierce gun battles with rebels holding towns near the capital but there were no signs they had broken the opposition momentum.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has an estimated 4-6 million barrels per day of spare crude production capacity, more than enough on paper to cover Libya's output of 1.6 million barrels a day.

But markets are worried that the unrest might spread to bigger producers in the region that would have a much bigger impact on the world economy.

After public uprisings have already toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, governments in the region are taking notice.

Saudi Arabia this week unveiled a $37 billion package to try to insulate the kingdom from the wave of protests across the Arab world, while Algeria lifted a 19-year-old state of emergency as it tried to appease opposition groups.

"When you start adding the potential number of barrels at stake, you can see why the market is tense and would rather be long oil than short," said Harry Tchilinguirian, chief commodity strategies at BNP in London.

INFLECTION POINT?

Deutsche Bank said oil above $120 a barrel would be an inflection point for global economic growth. At that price, oil as a share of global GDP starts to move above 5.5 percent, historically a point where global growth has come under pressure.

Airlines are feeling the brunt of high oil prices as reflected in sharp falls in stock prices. Chinese flag carrier Air China Ltd has dropped 14 percent this week.

"Unfortunately, oil prices have been rising like mad recently," said Li Jiaxiang, head of the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

Emerging Asia, which led the world's recovery from the global financial crisis, is already trying to deal with escalating food prices. Higher oil prices will add to the dilemma for policymakers of how to contain inflation and support economic growth.

Yet another complication is that while the crude price spikes this week reflect a supply-side risk, oil prices were already rising as economic activity around the world picked up pace.

"The global recovery is ongoing, it is gaining more traction but the developments in the crude-oil sector as a result of the turmoil in the Middle East is putting to question the strength of that recovery," said Jose Mario Cuyegkeng, economist at ING in Manila.

Since most countries have little control over the world price of oil, raising interest rates would not address the issue for their economies. But higher fuel prices could feed through to other prices, such as transport, and inflation expectations.

"The environment influencing inflation is now much more difficult than what we had expected at the end of last year," said Yim Jong-yong, South Korea's vice finance minister.

Indonesian central bank deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said he expects a recent drop in food and commodity prices to push monthly inflation down in the country, but oil was a risk.

"We have to be cautious on long-term inflation from rising oil prices," he told reporters.

The combination of high oil prices undermining growth while fuelling inflation raises the prospect of stagflation that blighted economies in the 1970s.

Westpac rates strategist Russell Jones said there was a risk of stagflation but there were economic differences now -- including less reliance on oil and better central bank credibility -- to suggest any outbreak would be mild and short lived.

Still, it would still result in a pick up in the pace of monetary policy tightening, he said.

"The longer that oil prices remain elevated, the more likely that the European Central Bank and Bank of England could hike in the second quarter. Emerging market central banks are also apt to tighten more aggressively.

(Additional reporting by Lee Shin-hyung in Seoul)

(Writing by John Mair in MANILA; Editing by Neil Fullick)


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Thursday, February 24, 2011

Who Cares That Buffalo Wild Wings Can Charge Your EV?

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Just in time for the Super Bowl, a Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD) sports bar in Kissimmee, Fla., installed a Coulomb Technologies ChargePoint station for electric vehicles. This is fantastic news for the smattering of EV owners who are fans of deep-fried, factory-farmed food served at chain restaurants and live in Central Florida (assuming these people exist). Unfortunately, there are a few reasons the marketing ploy of level II charging stations at restaurants is misled, at best.

First of all, there's charging time. Buffalo Wild Wings could have a better case than, say, a McDonald's, because people might stay put for a four-hour Super Bowl game. However, if you stop in for some wings and a fraction of a game, you'll get only a partial charge. Maybe you live only a few miles away, in which case, if you really wanted to be environmentally friendly, you should have ridden your bike. But I digress.

A full charge using a 240V charger for a Nissan Leaf will take about six hours. More than 80% of that charging will happen at home, according to Jose A. Salazar, senior project manager at the Advanced Technology, Field Technologies Group for Southern California Edison. When you're not juicing up in the garage (or maybe street charging, for those without garages), you'll probably be looking for a plug at or near work.

That's not stopping chains like Buffalo Wild Wings and McDonald's from making the play for EV customers, but it will likely be years, and maybe decades, before you would make a decision on where you eat fast food based on charging. At the Networked EV conference in November, there was a lively debate on whether charging at malls, restaurants, and movie theaters shifted the focus away from how to realistically mainstream EVs, which could include fleets, heavy-duty and fast-charging buses.

Of course, if gas prices continue to creep back up, then people will be more likely to adopt EVs, in which case faster charging will be in demand. However one of the ideas being tossed around now is that charging might be subscription-based, so depending on which company you pay to charge your car (Coulomb, Ecotality) -- you might not plug in just because you can at a restaurant if it means you're paying above and beyond what you're already charged monthly. Of course, if it's free, which it likely will be at many retail locations, then that's another story. �

The conventional answer to the long time required for charging is DC charging. A high-voltage DC charger can fully charge an EV in 25 minutes or less. But the systems are expensive, and the infrastructure exists mostly in fantasyland. Others, such as Better Place, have promoted battery swapping, but the idea has yet to catch wildfire beyond Better Place.

But there are cheaper alternatives. Ford (NYSE: F), for instance, will put a 6.6-kilowatt charger in the all-electric Focus coming out at the end of the year, allowing the car (with a 23-kilowatt-hour battery) fully recharge in three to four hours. Most other cars have a 3.3-kilowatt charger or smaller and thus take five or six hours to charge. It's sort of like having a bigger garden hose.

In the real world, that will mean that Ford drivers will be able to substantially top off their cars during trips to the mall or restaurants, said Ed Pleet, one of the designers behind the software and consumer interfaces coming with Ford's electric cars. An hour at lunch is a one-third charge. The interface for smartphones will help as well. Users can instantly tap into the level of charge, how long before the car is fully (or three-fourths) charged, and other information. Ideally, the information will reduce the any anxiety about how long a charge will take.

General Motors (NYSE: GM), meanwhile, has another idea: buy a Volt. The Volt contains a gas generator that extends the range to a few hundred miles.

More from GreenTechMedia:

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Apple succession plan proposal got 30 percent support (Reuters)

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) ? Almost a third of Apple shareholder votes cast were in favor of a proposal to disclose a succession plan for Chief Executive Steve Jobs, underscoring investors' worries over who will replace the visionary leader at the helm.

Apple said Wednesday during its annual meeting that the proposal, submitted by the Central Laborers' Pension Fund, had failed to pass. But it did not release details of the vote, raising speculation the proposal had won the backing of a sizable contingent of shareholders.

Succession planning at the world's most valuable technology company has been a hot topic since Jobs announced he was taking medical leave for unknown reasons, with many not expecting him to return to lead the company he founded in 1976.

The fate of Apple is tied to how the iPhone and iPad maker handles the eventual departure of its iconic chief. Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook is now overseeing day-to-day operations at the company.

According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday, 172.3 million shares were voted in favor of the proposal. Roughly 400 million shares were voted against it, with 3.4 million abstaining. There were 178.3 million broker non-votes.

Apple opposed the proposal, which called on it to adopt and disclose a written and detailed succession planning policy. The company has said it already has such a plan.

(Reporting by Gabriel Madway; Editing by Gary Hill)


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A gold medal this year, an also-ran the next

Such behaviour is especially worth remembering at this time of year, when fund management companies are promoting their wares for the Isa season. True, adverts no longer scream performance, performance, performance, but for most investors it is the hard return on their cash that counts. Smoothing the ride and protecting the downside don't seem to count for too much.

This explains why the most popular funds tend to be the ones that have had a decent trot recently and the ones that aren't are those funds that have disappointed. Unfortunately, investors often get their timing all wrong.

Take a look at the best Isa sellers of 2006. They included several property funds such as Aberdeen Property Shares - investors who bought five years ago would still be sitting on a loss of 40pc. New Star Property was another bumper seller thanks to an aggressive marketing campaign. Of course, New Star is no more, but the fund is still around in the form of Henderson Property and savers have a long way to go to make a bean.

Jupiter Emerging Europe is another popular fund of late to have slipped. If you had bought it three years ago you would be 7pc down. Other funds that have struggled to justify their sales include Allianz BRIC ? down 1.4pc over three years ? and JPM Cautious Total Return, which is in the bottom 25pc of funds in its sector over one and three years.

Even Britain's biggest fund, Invesco Perpetual Income, managed by Neil Woodford, has lagged its peers over the past three years.

These observations are backed up by a study from the Cass Business School and Barclays Wealth. The research found that timing decisions by private investors since 1992 had cost them an average of 1.2 percentage points a year because they had chased performance. The moral of the story is to ask yourself why you are investing in a fund in the first place ? and if it's only because of stellar returns already achieved, think again.

If it is an untried and untested fund promising the earth, proceed with caution. Jupiter Absolute Return raked in hundreds of millions of pounds in a matter of months a year or so ago, which was down to the manager's reputation ? yet the fund is down by 1.4pc over the year and is sitting in the bottom quartile.

Perhaps the saving grace for this year is that investors are not all chasing one fund or type of fund. A look at the best sellers across fund supermarkets shows that the most popular Isas are a mixed bunch: there are emerging market funds, income funds, corporate bond funds, cash funds and even property funds among the top 10 best sellers. The only surprise is that there doesn't appear to be a gold fund among them.

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Weekly jobless claims fall to 391,000 (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? U.S. jobless claims fell in the latest week but remained close to levels linked with persistently high unemployment, Labor Department data released on Thursday showed.

First-time applications for jobless aid dropped to 391,000 in the week ended February 19, down from 413,000 a week earlier. The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out volatility, dropped to 402,000, the lowest since mid-2008, before the financial crisis took a turn for the worse.

Claims have been bouncing around 400,000 for several weeks, having retreated sharply from peaks above 650,000 seen in early 2009.

The number of Americans remaining on the jobless rolls after the initial week of benefits declined by 145,000 to 3.79 million. The total number of overall benefit recipients, including those receiving assistance under an emergency federal program, edged down in the latest week but remained around 9.2 million.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell sharply in the last two months to 9.0 percent, an encouraging sign that a long-dormant job market was coming back to life. However, hiring has remained anemic, and analysts worry about the impact of renewed spikes in oil prices on the ability of U.S. firms to commit to new investments.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by James Dalgleish)


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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Madoff trustee hits SEC's top attorney with suit (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The top attorney at the Securities and Exchange Commission is being sued over allegations his family's estate wrongfully received over $1.5 million in phony profits from Bernard Madoff's massive fraud.

The lawsuit, filed late last year by Madoff trustee Irving Picard, targets the SEC's departing General Counsel David Becker along with his brothers William Becker and Daniel Becker. All three are co-executors of their mother Dorothy Becker's estate. Dorothy Becker passed away in June 2004.

According to the lawsuit filed in federal court in New York, the Becker estate received a little over $2 million since December 11, 2002 from Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC.

"The trustee's investigation has revealed that $1,544,494 of this amount was fictitious profit from the Ponzi scheme," the suit says. "Accordingly, defendants have received $1,544,494 of other people's money."

Madoff was arrested in December 2008 after admitting he ran a decades-long, multibillion-dollar swindle, considered the biggest investment fraud in history.

John Nester, a spokesman for the SEC, said on Wednesday that David Becker was unaware of his parents' investments with Madoff.

"He was not involved in his parents' financial affairs, and has no recollections of his parents' investment with Madoff prior to his mother's death and the subsequent liquidation of the account," he said in a statement.

Picard's suit seeks to recover that money from the Beckers to return it to wronged Madoff investors.

Becker is preparing to leave the SEC at the end of this month and return to private practice. He became general counsel in February 2009, where he has served as a policy adviser to Chairman Mary Schapiro on most of the agency's major policy and regulatory initiatives.

Previously he also served as the SEC's general counsel under past Chairmen Harvey Pitt and Arthur Levitt.

The case is Irving Picard, trustee for the liquidation of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC v William P. Becker, Daniel I. Becker and David M. Becker, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, No. 10-04620.

(Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch; Editing by Tim Dobbyn)


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White House: higher oil prices won't halt recovery (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? The White House on Wednesday said higher oil prices caused by Middle East unrest must be monitored but would not stall the U.S. recovery, while reiterating a warning on the risks posed by global imbalances.

"Thus far, they're up, but we're not forecasting -- and you haven't seen the private forecasters forecasting -- that at these levels they would derail the recovery," said top White House economist Austan Goolsbee.

U.S. crude oil reached a 28-month high of $100 a barrel on Wednesday as violence in OPEC producer Libya caused output there to be reduced and investors bet that unrest elsewhere in the region could cause additional disruption to supplies.

Goolsbee was answering a reporter's question during remarks on the annual Economic Report of the President, which takes a broad look at the outlook for the U.S. and global economy.

Oil's steady climb in recent weeks as popular revolts toppled autocratic leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, while sparking massed demonstrations elsewhere in the Arab world, has unsettled stock markets and applied a potential brake to growth in the United States and other oil-importing economies.

"We continue to monitor events of the Middle East and the fuel markets because they do have a negative impact. High fuel costs have a negative impact on the economy," Goolsbee said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 107.01 points, or 0.88 percent, on Wednesday and traders blamed part of those losses on concern over the rise in oil.

Higher fuel prices act as a tax on U.S. households and businesses, crimping spending and potentially denting demand that could sap growth and hiring, which are slowly improving as the country recovers from the severe 2007-2009 recession.

The president's report focused in part on the risk the United States faces from instability caused by ongoing global imbalances -- a coded reference to the massive trade surplus that China runs with the United States.

This has been a steady argument by U.S. officials at recent meetings of the Group of 20 industrial nations, where they have argued for emerging economies like China to do more to boost their own domestic demand as the United States lifts exports. The president's report repeated this point.

"The world economy, however, must not only recover but also shift away from its pre-crisis pattern of growth that was too dependent on U.S. consumption," the report said.

The report, prepared by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said it was not surprising that advanced economies were growing more slowly than emerging ones because that is part of a normal pattern, but it said the current gap is "unusually large."

Listing challenges to global growth, the report mentioned still-high unemployment rates and high fiscal deficits in developed countries.

It also noted that inflation was rising in some emerging economies, including China, and that the contrasting trends were putting pressure on exchange rates and money flows.

"The contrast between fast growth with rising interest rates in the emerging world and slower growth with lower interest rates in advanced economies has put pressure on capital flows and exchange rates," the White House said.

(Editing by Mohammad Zargham)


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Walmart Told to Stop Making Some Savings Claims

Filed under: Shopping, Consumer Ally, In the News

walmartWalmart has been asked to change or stop some of its price claims, after office supply giant Staples challenged the accuracy of savings touted by Walmart in a national TV spot and other ads.

The group making the request, the Council of Better Business Bureaus' National Advertising Division, serves as the advertising industry's self-regulating group, and this isn't the first time it has called out Walmart for making claims unsupported by facts.

In the current case, NAD said Staples objected to the TV ad for back-to-school sales that claimed consumers could "save 30% or more versus the national office superstores." Staples also took issue with national Walmart print and radio advertisements in which the store claimed shoppers could save anywhere from 28% to 63% on school supplies over its competitors.

In its response to NAD, Walmart said it would take the group's recommendations into consideration in future advertising.

In a two-sentence statement sent to Consumer Ally, Walmart said: "At Walmart, it remains a top priority that we provide clear, low-price information to our customers. As always, we'll continue to take the NAD's recommendations into account in our advertising."

In its response to NAD's inquiry, Walmart said the 30% savings referred to the 36 items seen in its TV commercial and pointed to a pricing survey of 266 Office Depot, Office Max and Staples stores to back its claims. Walmart's response was listed in the NAD decision.

However, NAD in its decision found consumers could misunderstand the commercial: "Even on close examination, a consumer would find it difficult -- if not impossible -- to identify 36 distinct items in this fast-moving, 15-second scene. NAD therefore determined that the "save 30% or more" claim, within the context of the challenged commercial, could be understood as conveying a message of broad savings, beyond the 36 items identified by Wal-Mart."

As for the print ads, Staples pointed out price inaccuracies for certain items. NAD urged Walmart to stop references to inaccurate prices. The group also recommended Walmart stop radio ads that touted a percentage savings claim because consumers had no context for the ad, which referred to a different print ad.

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Oil climbs on Libya disruption; Asia stocks slip (Reuters)

SINGAPORE (Reuters) ? U.S. crude oil futures climbed to 2-1/2-year highs on Wednesday on fears that output disruptions in Libya may spread to other Middle East oil producers and hurt global economic growth, helping push Asian stocks lower.

Popular protests have toppled entrenched leaders in Egypt and Tunisia, but a defiant Muammar Gaddafi, the world's second-longest-serving leader after the Sultan of Brunei, said he would not be forced out by the deadly unrest sweeping Africa's third-largest oil producer.

At last three oil companies have halted output in Libya, which pumps 1.6 million barrels per day, or nearly 2 percent of global supply.

U.S. crude rose as high as $96.08 a barrel, its strongest level since October 2008. By 0600 GMT, the contract had trimmed gains to trade at $95.50, up 8 cents on the day.

Brent crude rose 77 cents to $106.55 a barrel. On Monday, Brent hit a 2-1/2-year high of $108.70.

Higher energy prices could impede economic growth and hurt corporate profits even as they fuel inflationary pressures, complicating policymaking for governments and central banks.

"Even if Libya completely shuts down, there isn't a supply issue. But (U.S. crude) could go to $100, given the potential for this contagion to spread to Saudi Arabia," said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney.

Asia stocks fell as investors sold off riskier assets. Japan's Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.8 percent, while the MSCI index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan slid 0.5 percent.

Transport companies, whose fuel bills are headed up, extended sharp losses from Tuesday, with Korean Air Line shedding 1.8 percent. Chinese carrier Air China was down 1 percent while Hong Kong's dominant carrier Cathay Pacific fell 2.2 percent.

"The only observation an outsider sitting in Asia can make about events in the Middle East and North Africa is that the unpredictability of events and the difficulty in ascertaining the 'end game' mean that equity markets settling back into equilibrium is still some way off," said Nomura analyst Sean Darby.

"The ongoing risk is if food prices were to continue to rise due to unseasonal weather and indeed if fuel prices were to climb further. Non-linear responses such as bans on exports of food by producers or curtailment of shipments of fuel due to non-payment would only exacerbate the situation on the ground and make it more difficult to return to normalcy."

Gold, a traditional safe haven in times of trouble, was little changed around $1,398 an ounce, after a six-session rally, but the trend is still expected to be upwards.

Currencies viewed as safe havens, such as the yen and Swiss franc, have also been boosted by events in Libya.

The euro edged higher after European Central Bank officials stressed their readiness to fight inflation by raising interest rates, though it was expected to face resistance near $1.3750.

The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.3690, having bounced back sharply from Tuesday's intraday low of $1.3525.

Wall Street stocks on Tuesday suffered their worst day since August in what could be the start of a long-anticipated pullback after gaining more than 20 percent in the past six months.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 1.44 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 2.05 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.74 percent.

U.S. stock futures rose 0.3 percent in Asian trade on Wednesday, suggesting Wall Street will recover some ground later in the day.

(Additional reporting by Francis Kan and Masayuki Kitano in Singapore and Ian Chua in Sydney; Editing by Kim Coghill)


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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Is Northrop Grumman's Stock Cheap by the Numbers?

Numbers can lie -- yet they're the best first step in determining whether a stock is a buy. In this series, we use some carefully chosen metrics to size up a stock's true value based on the following clues:

  • The current price multiples.
  • The consistency of past earnings and cash flow.
  • The amount of growth we can expect.

Let's see what those numbers can tell us about how expensive or cheap Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) might be.

The current price multiples
First, we'll look at most investors' favorite metric: the price-to-earnings ratio. It divides the company's share price by its earnings per share (EPS). The lower the P/E, the better.

Then we'll take things up a notch with a more advanced metric: enterprise value to unlevered free cash flow. This tool divides the company's enterprise value (basically, its market cap plus its debt, minus its cash) by its unlevered free cash flow (its free cash flow, adding back the interest payments on its debt). As with the P/E, the lower this number is, the better.

Analysts argue about which is more important -- earnings or cash flow. Who cares? A good buy ideally has low multiples on both.

Northrop Grumman has a P/E ratio of 9.4 and an EV/FCF ratio of 13.7 over the trailing 12 months. If we stretch and compare current valuations with the five-year averages for earnings and free cash flow, we see that Northrop Grumman has a P/E ratio of 17.1 and a five-year EV/FCF ratio of 11.5.

A one-year ratio of less than 10 for both metrics is ideal. For a five-year metric, less than 20 is ideal.

Northrop Grumman has a mixed performance in hitting the ideal targets, but let's see how it stacks up against some of its competitors and industry mates.�

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; NM = not meaningful.

Numerically, we've seen how Northrop Grumman's valuation rates on both an absolute and relative basis. Next, let's examine ?

The consistency of past earnings and cash flow
An ideal company will be consistently strong in its earnings and cash-flow generation.

In the past five years, Northrop Grumman's net income margin has ranged from -3.9% to 6.0%. In that same time frame, unlevered free cash flow margin has ranged from 4.4% to 7.2%.

How do those figures compare with those of the company's peers? See for yourself:

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; margin ranges are combined.

In addition, over the past five years, Northrop Grumman has tallied up four years of positive earnings and five years of positive free cash flow.

Next, let's figure out ?

How much growth we can expect
Analysts tend to comically overstate their five-year growth estimates. If you accept them at face value, you will overpay for stocks. But even though you should definitely take the analysts' prognostications with a grain of salt, they can still provide a useful starting point when compared with similar numbers from a company's closest rivals.

Let's start by seeing what this company's done over the past five years. In that time period, Northrop Grumman has put up past EPS growth rates of 12.9%. Meanwhile, Wall Street's analysts expect future growth rates of 10.4%.

Here's how Northrop Grumman compares with its peers for trailing five-year growth:

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; EPS growth shown.

And here's how it measures up with regard to the growth analysts expect over the next five years:

anImage

Source: Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's; estimates for EPS growth.

The bottom line
The pile of numbers we've plowed through has shown us the price multiples that shares of Northrop Grumman�are trading at, the volatility of its operational performance, and what kind of growth profile it has -- both on an absolute and a relative basis.

The more consistent a company's performance has been and the more growth we can expect, the more we should be willing to pay. We've gone well beyond looking at a 9.4 P/E ratio, and the numbers look impressive. For more on my thoughts, check out the defense stocks I bought in my real-money portfolio.

If you find Northrop Grumman's numbers or story compelling, don't stop here. Continue your due-diligence process until you're confident that the initial numbers aren't lying to you.

Interested in reading more about any of these stocks? Add them to My Watchlist to find all of our Foolish analysis. And for more stock ideas, check out this recent article: "34 Expert Analysts Uncover Outstanding Dividend Plays."


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Diana Shipping CEO Discusses Q4 2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript


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Diana Shipping CEO Discusses Q4 2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript


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Network Rail break-up revealed

In a statement released on Monday, Mr Higgins said: ?We?re devolving accountability to the route level so that we can get closer to our customers and be in a better position to deliver improvements to passengers and freight users, while reducing costs.

?Each new route managing director will, in effect, be running their own infrastructure railway business with significant annual turnover and resources.?

From April, work will start to devolve power to the first two routes, Scotland and Wessex, which matches the lines operated by South West Trains from London to Surrey, Berkshire, Hampshire and Dorset.

Under Mr Higgins?s plans, all nine regions will be semi-autonomous within a year. However, insiders said the break-up could result in more than nine regions in the end.

The overhaul will be the biggest change since the company?s privatisation in 1996. It marks the latest stage of the painful evolution of Britain?s railways.

When it was created eight years ago, Network Rail was designed as a fiercely centralised organisation to get to grips with the dire performance and safety records of its predecessor, Railtrack.

However, the vast improvements in performance have come at a cost of a big, top-heavy bureaucracy that has been criticised for being too expensive and cumbersome.

Last summer, Tom Winsor, who was the rail regulator for five years, said that Network Rail was a ?beast ripe for slaughter?.

He urged the new Government to take a radical approach to railway reform.

He is proposing that Network Rail be split into ?three or four regional companies?, bringing them closer to their train operator customers and allowing regulatory benchmarking between them to drive efficiencies.


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Monday, February 21, 2011

Libyan clashes hits stocks as oil prices surge (AP)

LONDON ? Fears that Libya is heading toward deepening chaos hit stocks Monday and pushed oil prices sharply higher.

With reports suggesting that over 200 people have been killed in clashes across the country, which have spread to the capital Tripoli, investors are getting increasingly worried about the escalating violence in one of Africa's biggest oil producers.

Those concerns were heightened by a statement from Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, the son of Libya's longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi. Blaming everyone from drug addicts to the media for the current turmoil afflicting Libya, he warned that civil war was a real possibility and that his father would fight until "the last bullet."

Unlike Tunisia and Egypt, which have already seen popular uprisings that deposed longtime leaders, Libya is a member of producer cartel OPEC and has a direct impact on global oil production.

The country is one of the world's biggest oil producers, accounting for around 2 percent of global daily output, and has the biggest proven oil reserves in Africa. Already three leading oil companies, Italy's ENI, Norway's Statoil and Britain's BP, have already said they are pulling some employees out of Libya or preparing to do so.

"Libya is the first major oil exporter to be engulfed by the crisis and the first to see significant disruption to oil production," said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.

Unsurprisingly, the main impact was in the oil markets. Benchmark crude for March delivery was up $4.13, or 4.8 percent, at $90.13 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude in London spiked $2.35 a barrel, or 2.3 percent, to $104.84, having earlier struck a two and a half year high above $105.

Rising oil prices are a particular worry for investors as they reinforce fears over inflation and raw materials costs. They also stoke fears of a big drop in global demand levels, as evidenced in previous oil price shocks in 1973-4, 1979 and 2008.

Given that unappetizing backdrop, investors' appetite for risk in other markets fell sharply. When risk appetite is low, investors usually look for shelter in the perceived safe havens of the U.S. dollar and gold at the expense of more risky investments such as stocks.

"Political risk is hanging over a big proportion of the world's oil supplies," said Simon Derrick, an analyst at Bank of New York Mellon. "I can see safe haven buying the natural outcome of all this."

In Europe, Germany's DAX index closed down 105 points, or 1.4 percent, at 7,321.81 while the CAC-40 in Paris fell 59.73 points, or 1.4 percent, to 4,097.41. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares ended 68.19 points, or 1.1 percent, at 6,014.80.

Markets in the U.S. will be closed Monday for the President's Day holiday.

In the currency markets, the euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.3671, while the dollar was unchanged at 83.17 yen. Among commodities, an ounce of gold spiked over $17 to $1,406.

The unrest in Libya dominated European markets and deflected attention from positive economic data and a heavy defeat for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party at a state election.

Particularly strong was a survey showing that business confidence in Germany, Europe's biggest economy, has risen once again to hit a new two-decade high. The Ifo institute said its confidence index ? a closely watched indicator ? was up to 111.2 points for February from 110.3 in January. It was the ninth consecutive month-on-month rise.

Despite a buoyant German economy, Merkel's Christian Democrats lost badly in Hamburg.

Lee Hardman, a currency economist at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi-UFJ said the defeat could prove to be a significant development should it set a precedent going forward. The next two upcoming state elections are on March 27, two days before a crucial summit of EU leaders.

"Should the CDU party continue to lose national support ahead it could damage its ability to deal effectively with the eurozone debt crisis," Hardman said.

Earlier in Asia, investors also had their first chance to respond to Friday's decision by the monetary authorities in China to increase the amount banks hold in reserve. The 0.5 percent increase was announced after Asian markets had closed.

Mainland Chinese shares shrugged off the central bank's move. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.1 percent to 2,932.25. The Shenzhen Composite Index gained 1.9 percent to 1,297.66.

Elsewhere, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 0.1 percent to 10,857.53 with the index enjoying a six-day winning streak to close at a 10-month high.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 0.4 percent to 23,508.62, while South Korea's Kospi fell 0.4 percent to 2,005.30 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.7 percent to 4,900.

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Pamela Sampson in Bangkok contributed to this report.


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